Between the Dragon and the Eagle: Strategic Autonomy, Sovereignty and Kenya's Diplomacy in an Era of Great-Power Competition

Abstract

Kenya occupies a distinctive position in contemporary global affairs, acting simultaneously as a crucial security partner for the United States, an important economic destination for Chinese capital, and a prominent defender of African agency within international institutions. This article examines how Nairobi can leverage great-power competition to its advantage without allowing external alliances to compromise domestic policy space. Drawing upon theories of strategic autonomy, African agency, neoclassical realism, and complex interdependence, we conceptualize Kenya's current diplomatic posture as an exercise in pragmatic multi-alignment rather than rigid bloc adherence. Using a qualitative documentary analysis of official policy frameworks, scholarly assessments, and authoritative reports, the study tracks Kenya's evolving relationships with both Washington and Beijing across key sectors including defence, infrastructure, technology, sovereign debt, and regional governance. The analysis indicates that Kenya's primary diplomatic objective should not center on choosing a single patron, but rather on building the internal institutional mechanisms necessary to evaluate and choose partnerships on an issue-by-issue basis. Ultimately, we propose a sovereignty-driven operational model anchored in partnership diversification, strict contract transparency, proactive parliamentary oversight, and technological independence.