Keywords
Periwinkle Shell Ash
Lateritic Soil
Soil Stabilization
Response Surface Methodology
Probability Of Failure
Pavement Materials
Abstract
This study presents a probabilistic modelling and reliability-based assessment of the mechanical properties of periwinkle shell ash (PSA)–cement stabilized lateritic soils for sustainable pavement applications. Lateritic soils, though abundant in tropical regions, often exhibit high variability and inadequate strength for engineering use without stabilization. In this research, PSA, an environmentally sustainable waste material, was utilized as a supplementary cementitious component to enhance soil performance. Response Surface Methodology (RSM) based on a Central Composite Design (CCD) was employed to develop predictive models for California Bearing Ratio (CBR), Unconfined Compressive Strength (UCS), and Indirect Tensile Strength (ITS). The developed models were integrated into a reliability framework through the formulation of limit state functions corresponding to standard engineering thresholds. Reliability indices and probabilities of failure were computed using the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) and validated with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The results indicate reliability indices ranging from 1.6192 to 1.7841, with corresponding probabilities of failure between 3.72% and 5.27%. The close agreement between FORM and MCS demonstrates the robustness and accuracy of the modelling approach. Among the evaluated properties, UCS exhibited the highest reliability, while ITS showed comparatively lower reliability, indicating susceptibility to tensile cracking.
Overall, the findings confirm that PSA–cement stabilized lateritic soils are suitable for sub-base applications under low to medium traffic conditions. The study highlights the importance of reliability-based design in geotechnical engineering and supports the adoption of sustainable materials in pavement construction.
References
AASHTO. (2015). AASHTO LRFD bridge design specifications (7th ed.). American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials.
Adebisi, N. O., & Salami, A. W. (2015). Geotechnical properties of lateritic soil stabilized with periwinkle shell ash. Journal of Engineering Research, 20(3), 45–54.
Adeyeye, A. O., & Oyediran, I. A. (2011). Pozzolanic properties of periwinkle shell ash in concrete production. Nigerian Journal of Engineering, 15(2), 78–86.
Andrew, R. M. (2019). Global CO2 emissions from cement production, 1928–2018. Earth System Science Data, 11(4), 1675–1710.
Ang, A. H. S., & Tang, W. H. (2007). Probability concepts in engineering: Emphasis on applications in civil and environmental engineering (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Babu, G. L. S., & Sridharan, A. (2008). Reliability analysis of flexible pavements. International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2(4), 323–334.
Blight, G. E., & Leong, E. C. (2012). Mechanics of residual soils (2nd ed.). CRC Press.
Box, G. E. P., & Draper, N. R. (1987). Empirical model-building and response surfaces. John Wiley & Sons.
Christian, J. T., Ladd, C. C., & Baecher, G. B. (1994). Reliability applied to slope stability analysis. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 120(12), 2180–2207.
Das, B. M. (2019). Advanced soil mechanics (5th ed.). CRC Press.
Der Kiureghian, A. (2005). First- and second-order reliability methods. In the Engineering Design Reliability Handbook (pp. 1–24). CRC Press.
Elinwa, A. U., & Awam, A. E. (2004). The effect of periwinkle shell ash on the mechanical properties of concrete. Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, 2(3), 45–52.
Ellingwood, B. R. (2000). LRFD: Implementing structural reliability in professional practice. Engineering Structures, 22(2), 106–115.
EuroSoilsTAB. (2012). Stabilisation of soils with cement and lime. European Committee for Standardization.
Gidigasu, M. D. (1976). Laterite soil engineering: Pedogenesis and engineering principles. Elsevier Scientific Publishing.
Haldar, A., and Mahadevan, S. (2000). Probability, reliability, and statistical methods in engineering design. John Wiley & Sons.
Hasanbeigi, A., Price, L., & Lin, E. (2013). Emerging energy-efficiency and CO2 emission-reduction technologies for cement and concrete production. Energy, 45(1), 121–130.
Kleijnen, J. P. C. (2017). Regression and Kriging metamodels with their experimental designs in simulation: A review. European Journal of Operational Research, 256(1), 1–16.
Madsen, H. O., Krenk, S., & Lind, N. C. (2006). Methods of structural safety. Dover Publications.
Mehta, P. K., & Monteiro, P. J. M. (2014). Concrete: Microstructure, properties, and materials (4th ed.). McGraw-Hill.
Mitchell, J. K., & Soga, K. (2005). Fundamentals of soil behavior (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Montgomery, D. C. (2017). Design and analysis of experiments (9th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Myers, R. H., Montgomery, D. C., & Anderson-Cook, C. M. (2016). Response surface methodology: Process and product optimization using designed experiments (4th ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Nowak, A. S., & Collins, K. R. (2013). Reliability of structures (2nd ed.). CRC Press.
Nwaiwu, C. M. O., Okafor, F. O., & Okonkwo, U. N. (2013). Stabilization of lateritic soil with periwinkle shell ash. Nigerian Journal of Technology, 32(1), 45–52.
Okafor, F. O., & Egbe, E. A. (2004). Potentials of periwinkle shell as a construction material. Journal of Engineering Research, 9(2), 56–65.
Okafor, F. O., & Okonkwo, U. N. (2016). Strength characteristics of periwinkle shell ash–cement stabilized lateritic soil. Nigerian Journal of Engineering, 23(1), 12–20.
Okonkwo, U. N., & Arimanwa, J. O. (2015). Durability of periwinkle shell ash-stabilized lateritic soil. Journal of Engineering and Technology, 10(2), 78–86.
Okonkwo, U. N., & Odiong, I. C. (2012). Geotechnical properties of lateritic soil stabilized with periwinkle shell ash. International Journal of Engineering and Technology, 2(4), 567–574.
Ola, S. A. (1983). Tropical soils of Nigeria in engineering practice. A. A. Balkema.
Olutoge, F. A., & Adeleke, O. E. (2014). Assessment of periwinkle shell ash as a pozzolanic material in concrete production. Journal of Engineering Research, 19(3), 45–54.
Onyelowe, K. C., Bui Van, D., & Ubachukwu, O. A. (2017). Geotechnical properties of periwinkle shell ash stabilized lateritic soil. International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 11(4), 389–396.
Osadebe, N. N., & Eze, J. C. (2007). The use of periwinkle shell ash as a partial replacement for cement in concrete. Nigerian Journal of Engineering Research, 8(1), 23–31.
Phoon, K. K., & Kulhawy, F. H. (1999). Characterization of geotechnical variability. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 36(4), 612–624.
Rubinstein, R. Y., & Kroese, D. P. (2016). Simulation and the Monte Carlo method (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Selçuk, L., & Tan, O. (2015). Reliability analysis of geotechnical structures using the first-order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 8(10), 8223–8233.
Selouma, M., Lharti, H., Hayek, M., & de Weerdt, K. (2025). Assessment of precast concrete deterioration in marine environments using non-destructive methods. Construction and Building Materials, 492, 143104.
Sherwood, P. T. (1993). Soil stabilization with cement and lime. Transport Research Laboratory, State of the Art Review.
Thomas, B. S., Kumar, S., & Arel, H. S. (2019). Sustainable concrete containing palm oil fuel ash as a supplementary cementitious material: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 102, 42–57.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2026 Author