Socio-Economic Factors: The key drivers of armed banditry in Katsina State, Nigeria (2019-2024)

Abstract

This study examines the socio-economic drivers of armed banditry in Katsina State, Nigeria, between 2019 and 2024, employing a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design that integrates quantitative surveys of 394 respondents with qualitative interviews of 27 key informants. Grounded in the frustration-aggression theoretical framework, the research investigates how structural socio-economic conditions fuel recruitment into bandit groups and perpetuate rural insecurity. Findings reveal overwhelming consensus among affected communities that poverty (82.0%), youth unemployment (83.5%), educational deprivation (79.2%), corruption among government and security officials (85.0%), and weak policing and law enforcement capacity (85.2%) constitute primary drivers of armed banditry. The study identifies a self-reinforcing cycle wherein structural frustration produces violent adaptation, which subsequently destroys livelihoods and creates secondary frustration that perpetuates the conflict. Demographic analysis indicates that young adults aged 18–35 years (63.9% of respondents) and low-income earners (71.8% earning below ₦100,000 monthly) represent populations most susceptible to frustration-induced aggression. The research extends the frustration-aggression framework from individual psychology to collective social dynamics, demonstrating how uniform structural conditions produce divergent behavioral responses, including banditry, vigilantism, or acquiescence, depending on organizational availability and opportunity structures. The study contributes empirical evidence to the limited literature on Katsina State specifically, while offering theoretically-informed recommendations for breaking the frustration-aggression cycle through coordinated multi-dimensional interventions targeting economic opportunity, security provision, and institutional legitimacy. The findings underscore that sustainable peace requires addressing root structural frustrations rather than merely suppressing aggressive symptoms, providing critical insights for evidence-based policy formulation in conflict-affected regions.