The Yield-Gap Paradox: Human Capital Outperforms Physical Infrastructure in Nigeria’s ATASP-1 Staple Crop Processing Zones (2015–2025)

Abstract

The Agricultural Transformation Agenda Support Program Phase One (ATASP-1) in Nigeria (2015-2025) was designed as a multi-modal intervention to catalyse commercial agribusiness through infrastructure development and human capital investment. Final program data reveal a stark “Yield-Gap Paradox”: agricultural productivity decoupled dramatically from physical infrastructure delivery. This study investigates the extent to which technical training and input support offset the negative externalities of incomplete feeder roads and irrigation assets. Applying the Resilient Impact Systems Analysis (RISA) framework across four Staple Crop Processing Zones (SCPZs), the Core Impact Effect (CIE) was isolated and test driver elasticities through multivariate OLS regression. While feeder road rehabilitation reached only 59.51% of its appraisal target, total food production surged to 2,145,410 Metric Tonnes (536.35% achievement) and the program generated 3,454,503 new jobs (987% of target). Regression results (Appendix A) show that technical training (246.94% achievement) and business skills development (290.53% achievement) functioned as the primary drivers of the CIE, with a human-capital elasticity nearly 2.7 times greater than physical infrastructure (Decoupling Coefficient = 476.84%). These findings challenge traditional infrastructure-first development models and demonstrate that “soft” investments in human capital provide a more elastic and resilient foundation for agricultural growth in volatile regions. The study concludes that future initiatives, such as the Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ), must prioritise the Adoption Retention Function (ARF) through sustained knowledge transfer to maintain impact when physical capital works face delays.